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Back to the hermit, the man woke up from his coma and is now a newbie determined to learn about the markets: in case you didn’t know – it hasn’t been a good year for crypto.
Terra, Three Arrows Capital (3AC), Celsius and Voyager all fell; The market value of the region was crushed; NFT trading volume decreased. But in a year of bad weeks, this was the worst.
This is not entirely true in terms of numbers. Over the past seven days, the total volume of the cryptocurrency market has fallen by 20%, but is still down 26% since mid-May.
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But over the past seven days, something deep has broken. On Tuesday morning, the cryptocurrency exchange announced that it had agreed to acquire FTX rival Binance. The news comes days after a spat between CEOs Sam Bankman-Fried and Changpeng Zhao (CZ), with the Binance CEO questioning the financial stability of his rival’s empire. By agreeing to the sale, Bankmann-Fried confirmed that CZ was correct, at least in broad strokes. When customers left the exchange, FTX was left with a hole that some estimates could not fill, as large as $10 billion.
By Thursday morning, the tone had changed. Binance pulled out of the deal after taking a closer look at FTX’s finances and finding them worse than imagined. The next day, Bankman-Fried announced that he was stepping down as CEO and that FTX and its subsidiaries would file for bankruptcy. Since then, there have been rumors of a $515 million “hack” of FTX funds — which may have been an inside job instead.
It’s too soon to find out what happened. Bombs seem to be dropping by the day, and crypto has the rare gift of making even its staunchest opponents. Regardless of the actual events that occur, they may not be very relevant. The FTX explosion represented a fateful moment. This is a crisis of faith for the industry and should force us to aggressively update our mental models. It’s an opportunity to think about what crypto is and what it should be, and the great distance between here and there. If it’s not already clear, I say these things to myself, or more to myself than the wider community. Personally, this week I’ll talk about how I feel about crypto and the reasons why I remain positive about it (probably
What seems indisputable is: Considered one of the most influential, innovative and regulatory-minded companies in cryptography.
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Alameda apparently borrowed $10 billion in consumer funds to save its sister firm. Raised billions from legendary investors like Sequoia Capital, bought the naming rights to an NBA stadium, acquired battered lenders like Voyager, launched a profitable cryptocurrency exchange, turned Tom Brady into a hot advertising icon, converted Larry David. . The Super Bowl turned out to be a smash, attracting coverage from almost every media outlet on the planet, including this one.
Those who have been following FTX for a while know that I consider FTX to be one of the most interesting startups on the planet. Their growth and efficiency were astounding: FTX did in 18 months with an almost ridiculously lean team, where competitors took years and thousands of employees. When I first wrote about them, they had $803 million in revenue and relied on just six developers. In Sam Bankman-Fried, they had a gigabrained director with just the right combination of ruthless pragmatism and unwavering moral fiber. A consummate businessman who took extraordinary systems thinking and outsider ingenuity to transform crypto — and with enough horizons to recognize the importance of building a brand not only in mainstream America, but also in the corridors of DC.
That’s not to say I didn’t see danger in the way Bankmann-Fried ran their empire. In my first piece at the company I wrote:
Since the inception of FTX, [SBF] has been willing to work controversially to achieve its goals. In preparation for this piece, I spoke with someone familiar with Alameda and FTX in the early days. They highlighted the obvious conflict of interest that the relationship between the two organizations creates. FTX Exchange doesn’t like the market maker set up by its CEO? How can you make sure other traders are getting a fair shake? The truth is they don’t. The person I spoke to explained how important Alameda was to FTX in the beginning, providing liquidity to the new market. Perhaps less clear is whether Alameda got anything in return. The source noted that FTX attracted strong traffic in part because it was citing narrow markets. This guy found it impossible that a market maker could actually make money with such spreads, and one of two things was going on: either Alameda played the same playing field as the others and lost money (essentially subsidizing FTX) or the firm gained something. of achievement. For example, it may be your first time trading the stock market. None of this is illegal, but it is loaded territory. So far, this has proven to be risky. SBF took both the organizations to new heights. Over time, Alameda and FTX appear to grow independently, potentially reducing conflicts of interest. But the willingness to operate at an acceptable level tells us something about SBF’s direction and its desire to succeed despite the turmoil.
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Data at the time indicated that Alameda and FTX were becoming more independent. Figures provided by the company show that the percentage of FTX volume from Alameda has declined from +50% in May 2019 to around 5% by mid-2021. There is no indication that Alameda’s finances are in trouble. Of course, they may not have been around at the time – these were timely assessments. With the benefit of hindsight, let’s look back, and we were clear about the potential for conflict, our bargaining power, and Bankman-Fried’s sometimes messy methods. Ultimately, the available data seemed to indicate a reduced risk. Now we know that is far from the true story.
Of course, every startup dances with risk. One thing VCs don’t like to talk about is that building a great company requires breaking the law. This is especially true when the company has to contend with regulators or vested interests.
Uber created a market “its way” by bypassing regulators, Airbnb screwed city governments by flooding metropolitan markets with tourists, Facebook defected from Winklevy, and Microsoft’s MS-DOS operating system was partially (or not) removed from its rival. French writer Honore de Balzac said: “Behind every great fortune there is a great crime.” In entrepreneurship it’s less clear-cut – but it’s not entirely wrong. It might be more accurate to say that behind every great company there are solvable sins of transgression and abuse.
If you believe (I do) that entrepreneurship is an important engine of human progress, to some extent this makes sense. (Let’s have an unsatisfying debate: What does “within reason” mean?)
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In college, I remember asking a political science professor if she ever thought about running for office. After all, they were young, smart, moral and attractive. They told me never because politics doesn’t allow talent. For a while, that seemed very logical to me, the morally courageous way to go. In recent years, I’ve questioned that. A purist might thrive in art or academia (I don’t know if that’s a fantasy or not), but not anyone who enters business or politics. to do something
All of this is to say that I thought FTX operated like a lot of exclusive organizations. Bankmann-Fried kept them aside when necessary, but was quick to keep them on the right side of the meridian. While there are some smart shortcuts here and there, FTX was too smart to invest client funds, engage in high-risk lending, or structure itself to be Alameda.
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